UFC Picks 3/25/23
Analyst - @Jknucklez
2023 Main Picks
2023 Entire Card picks
2021-2022 Entire card picks Record
(Please read fight breakdowns, where I pick ALL the fights)
In order by risk.
Underdog shots (supposed to lose, but guys/girls that could pull an upset) this doesn't mean to bet it:
Specific Finish Prop bets
Kape by TKO
Vergara by TKO RD 1 or RD2
Njokuani by TKO
Holm by TKO
Lingo by TKO
Lee by Decision/Split Dec
Dart throw submission bets:
Peterson by Submission
Pineda by submission
Landwehr by Submission
Hedge: Vera by Decision
Fight Breakdowns & Entire Card Picks
Sandhagen - Vera literally doesn't throw punches or have hands attached to his body. He still ends up with about 3 knockdowns per fight and doesn't land a ton of volume. Sandhagen is around 171 strikes per fight and mostly significant. Sandhagens boxing should get him the victory in this one. Thai fighters don't like boxing style fights especially boxers with tons of power. I'll side with Sandhagen here, however I really don't mind a Vera by decision Hedge if he manages to get some leg kick knock downs.
Holm - Holly Holm is getting old, but she's still on the roids. I think she gets some takedowns here and has the advantage boxing obviously. Santos quits in fights and just had a baby. I'll take Holm for the victory with a sprinkle of TKO.
Lingo – Landwehr is a guy that gets knocked out easily, if he doesn't he could land a submission victory. Lingo has some good power so I don't mind a Lingo by TKO 1st rd bet and maybe a round 2 submission hedge for a Landwehr victory.
Lee – Andrea Lee is an average 88 strikes per fight type fighter, who tends to mix in some takedowns. Barber isn't exactly ever impressive and lands around 83 strikes per fight. I'll give Lee the edge by decision or even split decision.
Kape - My boy Kape is back and he's going to destroy Alex Perez. Perez has mediocre wrestling and I think Kape is too athletic and strong to be controlled. Kape should be able to get the TKO here.
Njokuani - Njokuani is a kick boxing thai fighter coming off a knockout loss to Rodrigues last september. Njokuani should be able to keep it on the feet and get a tko on Duraev who has weak wrestling, not great striking. Njokuani by TKO
Pineda - Pineda appears to be back on the roids, he has some sick submissions. He's getting up there in age, but always tries to get finishes in his fights. Sabbatini who's a great grappler couldn't get a sub on Lutz, but beat Lutz every where and I think Pineda can do the same thing.
Peterson - You've heard of people at the gym skipping leg day? Well Lucas Alexander skips Jiu jitsu class, Peterson should be able to absolutely rag doll Lucas Alexander and then get a submission in the 1st or 2nd rd.
Parsons - Giles has a questionable chin and is always at risk of being KO'd. Parsons isn't exactly dangerous, but can throw power from time to time mixing in 4 takedown attempts a fight. I will be avoiding this fight, because Giles has extremely low volume and he could easily lose a dec. Giles last fight over 73 strikes was against Krause who probably threw the fight in 2020. I guess I'll take Parsons with the td volume advantage.
Vergara - In all 4 fights DaSilva was knocked out. I think Vergara is the more complete fighter and should be able to get a TKO of Dasilva who literally is only dangerous for about 1 min and 15 seconds and then completely gasses. Vergara by TKO in RD1 or RD2
Salvador - Salvador throws some pretty good power shots and was able to land 3 knock downs last time out. Both fighters are averaging around 94 landed strikes per fight. I think they are even on the ground, so this should play out on the feet. I will say that Altamirano has attempted 8 takedowns in a fight before. I'll take Salvador for the victory
@mrakaco from Sports Plus Life Podcast