MMA Bets 

UFC Picks 12/3/22

Analyst - @Jknucklez

UFC Record: 722-410-15

Favorite Betting picks

(Please read fight breakdowns, where I pick ALL the fights)

In order by risk. 

*I love tons of underdogs this week, be-careful with large parlays. 

Rowe under 2.5 rounds

Rowe

Jauregui

Holland

Dos Anjos

Dolidze

Underdog shots (supposed to lose, but guys/girls that could pull an upset) this doesn't mean to bet it:

Tuivasa

Valdez

Rowe

Dolidze

Specific Finish Prop bets

 

Rowe by TKO

Jauregui by submission

Fight Breakdowns & Picks

 Holland - Kevin Holland is a beast when standing up, obviously he's been awful at grappling. Wonderboy is always an awkward karate style fighter who's dangerous, but I think Holland has enough power to put him out. Holland for the victory.

Dos Anjos-  RDA (dos anjos) is well rounded and a better fighter all around than his opponent Barberena who's shown some power recently. However I don't see him knocking out RDA so he doesn't really have too much of a chance in this fight to win a dec. RDA for the victory.

Nicolau -  Nicolau is a low volume guy typically landing 76 strikes per fight. He has good take down defense. Schnell could get dropped in this fight, Nicolau has good take down defense and should have a striking edge in this one. Nicolau for the victory

Tuivasa - Tuivasa is tough and Pavlovich is really good, but I think his issue could be cardio if he can't put out Tuivasa. Tuivasa should be able to leg kick the shit out of him and then land a big shot. This is risky, but I'm taking the underdog Tuivasa in the one.

 

Dolidze – Dolidze is a killer, Hermansson is always dangerous, but I think Dolidze can wrestle a bit so I think he survives if Hermansson takes him down. I don't like Dolidze's volume ever, but the last year no one has made it out of the 1st rd with him.

Daukaus –  If Kyle Daukaus can't take you down he struggles, but I think Anders is the worse wrestler in this one and I also think Daukaus probably has the better stand up and it may play out there in a low volume affair. I'll take Kyle Daukaus for the victory.

Rowe – Niko Price is going to try to stand up with Rowe and both men have been rocked and dropped before. I think that Rowe has been working on his striking and has tons of range. I don't see this lasting long and I'm taking Rowe under 2.5 rounds by TKO 

 

Angela Hill - If Angela Hill doesn't get taken down she's going to go out there and land a respectable 88 strikes per fight. Ducote can land 100 strikes against lower talent strikers. I think Angela Hill probably is the A side of the fight with her experience. 

Holtzman - Holtzman is a fighter that tends to go to sleep against strong fighters. Some wrestle fuckers went 5 for 19 on takedowns for him, which indicates he can get back up if Guida takes him down. I think Holtzman has the better striking so I'll take him for the victory in this one.

Diakiese* - I think Michael Johnson is always a dangerous fighter and one shot can put you out and if he wins it would be by tko. Diakiese doesn't take tons of damage normally. This fight can go either way. I'll pick Diakiese for the victory.

Pearce -  Pearce ends most of his fights by ground and pound. Elkins tends to get hit alot and has a brown belt in BJJ. This is a situation where Pearce could find himself in a dangerous position if he takes down Elkins. I think Pearce is the better fighter at this point of his career so I'll take Pearce for the victory. I don't mind a punt bet on an elkins sneaky submission.

 

Valdez - Both fighters are fairly green. Valdez does finish majority of his fights and Levy is well rounded, but if he can't take you down he tends to panic a little bit. I think Valdez is the better fighter in this one so I'll take him for the victory.

Marshall - James Krause is in some trouble betting on his own fighters to lose. Rojo is a tough guy and won't have his coach in his corner. I think Marshall has a chance to win because of the controversy and he has a little bit of a takedown upside.

Jauregui - Jauregui has solid grappling and ok striking. I think I favor Nunes on the feet a little bit more, so this would be a great strategy to use Jauregui's grappling edge and land a submission for the victory. Lets pray for some fight IQ.

 

 

@mrakaco from Sports Plus Life Podcast

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